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美國時間 1/27晚上，歐巴馬發表了國情咨文，也就是跟大家講講他未來打算要做哪些事情，小弟我不才把全篇看完以後，整理一些重點跟大家分享。

全文落落長，但是其實還蠻值得一看的，關心政治的人可以觀察美國政府的全球政策是否轉變，關心投資的人可以觀察美國經濟發展的重點要放在哪，都不關心的人也可以看看歐巴馬這些演講稿的英文修辭，由於小弟我是在投資界混口飯吃，所以大多摘錄有關投資與經濟方面的訊息；至於有興趣看全篇原文的可以參考本文最後的連結。

先省略一大段開場白，熱血歐巴馬的演講來了，摘錄一小段。

These were times that tested the courage of our convictions, and the strength of our union.  And despite all our divisions and disagreements; our hesitations and our fears; America prevailed because we chose to move forward as one nation, and one people.

Again, we are tested.  And again, we must answer history’s call.

起來吧美國人，歷史又再次考驗我們的勇氣與信念！ 這讓我想到，奇異果，起來~~~~現在也才三點，競爭好激烈，你怎麼還在睡。
這…. 有點離題了，讓我們再回來看歐巴馬說了些什麼 ^^|先講我們仍然有很多困難。

But the devastation remains.  One in ten Americans still cannot find work.  Many businesses have shuttered.  Home values have declined.  Small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard.  For those who had already known poverty, life has become that much harder.

很抱歉，對很多人來說，改變並不夠快，順便先砲轟一下 Wall Street。

For these Americans and so many others, change has not come fast enough.  Some are frustrated; some are angry.  They don’t understand why it seems like bad behavior on Wall Street is rewarded but hard work on Main Street isn’t; or why Washington has been unable or unwilling to solve any of our problems.

以同理心安慰完大家以後，先來振奮人心一下，這句太常看到了，要學起來。

It is because of this spirit – this great decency and great strength – that I have never been more hopeful about America’s future than I am tonight.  Despite our hardships, our union is strong.  We do not give up.  We do not quit.  We do not allow fear or division to break our spirit.

進入要做啥事的重點了，第一槍，一定先開向 Wall Street；先來點保護費來贖罪吧。

As a result, the markets are now stabilized, and we have recovered most of the money we spent on the banks.

To recover the rest, I have proposed a fee on the biggest banks.

中間又講了我們減稅與增加失業補助，因此防止了兩百萬美國人失業。

That’s why we extended or increased unemployment benefits for more than 18 million Americans; made health insurance 65% cheaper for families who get their coverage through COBRA; and passed 25 different tax cuts.

重點來了，我們今年要創造一百五十萬個工作機會。(意味失業率開始下降的時間不遠了)

And we are on track to add another one and a half million jobs to this total by the end of the year.

就業就是今年政府施政的最大重點，政府將會幫助營造企業徵人的環境，如何營造呢，請繼續看下去囉。

That is why jobs must be our number one focus in 2010, and that is why I am calling for a new jobs bill tonight.

Now, the true engine of job creation in this country will always be America’s businesses.  But government can create the conditions necessary for businesses to expand and hire more workers.

方案一，幫助中小企業取得資金以及減稅 – 只要他們多徵人以及提高薪資。(只有中小企業受惠喔)

So tonight, I’m proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat.  I am also proposing a new small business tax credit – one that will go to over one million small businesses who hire new workers or raise wages.

方案二，興建高鐵以及綠能投資，獎勵在美國境內創造工作機會的企業，將工作外移的公司將會失去稅負的優惠。(謎之音：為什麼第一條高鐵是 Florida先開始呢? 竊以為 DC-NY-Boston這條線才是美國最需要高鐵的地方)

Tomorrow, I’ll visit Tampa, Florida, where workers will soon break ground on a new high-speed railroad funded by the Recovery Act.  There are projects like that all across this country that will create jobs and help our nation move goods, services, and information.  We should put more Americans to work building clean energy facilities, and give rebates to Americans who make their homes more energy efficient, which supports clean energy jobs.  And to encourage these and other businesses to stay within our borders, it’s time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs in the United States of America.

話鋒一轉，娓娓道來改革的阻力。 (不過這樣激勵人心的效果應該不錯滴)

From the day I took office, I have been told that addressing our larger challenges is too ambitious – that such efforts would be too contentious, that our political system is too gridlocked, and that we should just put things on hold for awhile.

For those who make these claims, I have one simple question:

How long should we wait?  How long should America put its future on hold?

Wall Street你們完了，三不五時就講到你們，金融改革我來囉。

One place to start is serious financial reform.  Look, I am not interested in punishing banks, I’m interested in protecting our economy.  A strong, healthy financial market makes it possible for businesses to access credit and create new jobs.

具體作法來了，吸收存款的機構不能進行風險性投資，也就是說，商業銀行不能做投資銀行的業務。而且如果最後的法案內容差很大的話，我就會直接退回。(幾天前歐巴馬提出這個方案後，我相信現在許多大型金融機構已經開始做非常積極的遊說工作，希望能夠檔下、或是至少大幅限縮法案的內容)

We need to make sure consumers and middle-class families have the information they need to make financial decisions.  We can’t allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy.

The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes.  And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it.  Well, we cannot let them win this fight.  And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back.

痛打 Wall Street一頓後，來講點綠能投資吧；重點有三，1)興建核電廠； 2)開採離岸石油； 3)生殖能源與乾淨煤炭技術。(逐漸降低美國對於海外石油的依賴，一直都是歐巴馬上任以來很重要的政策方針，而這是他第一次明確表示幾個可行的作法，恢復興建核電廠、開採美國的離岸油源，這中間所蘊含的意義以及投資決策分析就留給大家自己思考囉)

But to create more of these clean energy jobs, we need more production, more efficiency, more incentives.  That means building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants in this country.  It means making tough decisions about opening new offshore areas for oil and gas development. It means continued investment in advanced biofuels and clean coal technologies.  And yes, it means passing a comprehensive energy and climate bill with incentives that will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy in America.

來了來了，從山坡上輕輕的爬下來了。喂~~~

其實是來了一個很大的重點，美國正式宣告要大幅增加出口，預估五年內要將出口值翻倍，隱含的 CAGR有14%以上。 (看到了嗎? 過去美國以超強大的內需市場作為推動經濟成長的主要來源，現在開始經濟發展的重點要轉向了，現在最大的重點是要大幅提升出口，以美國這樣的經濟體規模，居然有每年成長14%的出口成長目標，出口要出些什麼? 要出到哪裡去? 這可是需要好好思考研究的地方了)

Third, we need to export more of our goods.  Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America.  So tonight, we set a new goal:  We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America.  To help meet this goal, we’re launching a National Export Initiative that will help farmers and small businesses increase their exports, and reform export controls consistent with national security.

謎之音: 不知道出口美國牛肉/內臟算不算在這個 National Export Initiative裡面??? 畢竟幫助的中小企業與農民 ^^|

之後講了一堆大學學費與健保制度的問題，由於這與投資就比較沒有直接相關，就先略過啦。

再來講到預算赤字，正式宣告自 2011年起聯邦預算將不再成長。講了一大串，基本上有兩個做法，1)某些企業與個人的減稅措施將不再延續；2)逐步自伊拉克已及阿富汗撤軍，其中 2010.08之前作戰部隊將完全撤出伊拉克，2011.07開始自阿富汗撤軍。

Starting in 2011, we are prepared to freeze government spending for three years.  Spending related to our national security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will not be affected.

To help working families, we will extend our middle-class tax cuts.  But at a time of record deficits, we will not continue tax cuts for oil companies, investment fund managers, and those making over $250,000 a year.  We just can’t afford it.

演講講到最後當然不免再來一些激勵人心的話，強調一下勤奮、樂觀的價值觀，最後仍然不忘再倒打一把到 Wall Street身上。

But each time a CEO rewards himself for failure, or a banker puts the rest of us at risk for his own selfish gain, people’s doubts grow.  Each time lobbyists game the system or politicians tear each other down instead of lifting this country up, we lose faith.  The more that TV pundits reduce serious debates into silly arguments, and big issues into sound bites, our citizens turn away.

No wonder there’s so much cynicism out there.

No wonder there’s so much disappointment.

看來歐巴馬為了提振日益低迷的支持度，直接把開刀對象對準民怨最深的金融機構，這下有可能要玩真的了，現在就看這些既得利益團體能夠發揮多大的游說功力了。

總結本次的國情咨文，比起上次毆巴馬在國會的演講，這次更明確指出改革金融體系的方法，詳細列出擺脫境外石油的步驟，以及最重要的，大幅增加出口，美國是全世界最大的經濟體，任何政策的轉向或改變都有可能影響你我的生活以及投資決策，剛好這也是台股重挫之後，再重新整理佈局時候需要好好思考的一個中長期佈局方向。

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